HOW TO BET MIXED MARTIAL ARTS AND UFC 141 PREDICTIONS!

ZUFFA LLC, parent company of the Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) home is in Las Vegas, Nevada. Not only is Las Vegas home to the UFC but is arguably the gambling capital of the world.  Billions of dollars are won and lost in Vegas aka Sin City each year.

With one of the UFC's biggest fights of the year happening this Friday night, (Pay Per View starts at its old time of 10pm ET) between two monsters Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem it is a good time to explain how to bet Mixed Martial Arts and give some fight predictions.

Lets explain how Mixed Martial Arts betting works with this Friday's UFC 141 PPV main event.  Other sites use units etc to determine betting but who cares about that(no disrespect if you do). All I care about is the bottom line.  Dollars and cents.

Betting lines were taken from betus.com and up to the minute as of December 30, 2011 at 8:55 AM . Lines constantly change from when they open til they close.

The line for the 5 round, main event fight for UFC 141 between Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem is

  

		Brock Lesnar		+125	1½ O +160 U -200
		Alistair Overeem		-155

How to read this line is the favorite of the bout is Overeem at -155.  The favorite is always identified as a minus (-) with a number next to it, which that number is set by oddsmakers. The underdog in the bout is Lesnar at +125. The underdog always has a plus (+) before the number the oddsmakers set.

Now lets break down how to place the bets. If you wanted to win $100 on Overeem, whose line is -155 you would need to bet $155. If you wanted to bet on Lesnar who is +125, you would need to bet $100 to win $125.

Also bets are being taken on how long the fights will last. The 1 1/2 number is representing what the odds makers feel the fight will last. Which is 1.5 rounds, which translates to 7 minutes and thirty seconds. Each UFC round is 5 minutes in length. If you think the fight will last under that, you need to bet $200 to win $100 because the under number (U) is -200. If you think the fight (which is 5 rounds) is going to last longer than a round and a half, you need to bet $100 to win $160 because the over (O) is +160.

To further the understanding I'll throw random numbers out there, and show what you need to pay and what you can win.
　
Underdog bets
　
+120 Bet $100 to win $120
+170 Bet $100 to win $170
+260 Bet $100 to win $260
　
Favorite bets

-120 Bet $120 to win $100
-170 Bet $170 to win $100
-260 Bet $260 to win $100

BETUS.com like other sites also do fun proposition bets as well. A sample of these and sticking with the UFC 141 main event are:
　
Brock Lesnar wins by KO, TKO, or DQ +150
Brock Lesnar wins by Submission +800
Brock Lesnar wins by Decision +600
　
Alistair Overeem wins by KO, TKO, or DQ -125
Alistair Overeem wins by Submission +400
Alistair Overeem wins by Decision +600

Fight outcome is a draw +5000
　
Some helpful tips when betting MMA as well. Remember first and foremost its MMA, anything can and usually happens. Its a coin flip. When breaking down the fighter you want to bet on see who they have fought, who they have beat, lost too and the method of the victories and defeats they have had as well. I find doing the same thing on the guy they are going to fight is beneficial as well. When looking at fighters there are certain Mixed Martial Artists who beat guys they should, however when they get to that next level of competition they consistently faulter. A few other factors to consider is who the fighters coaches are, training partners and word on the street. (ie regarding how the training camp is going, mental approach to fight and injuries)
　
Another thing to look at is tendancies. Jon Fitch is a perfect example for this point. Fitch who in our rankings is the #2 welterweight fighter in the world is known as a grinding fighter, who often does not finish fights. There is nothing wrong with being a grinding fighter. I may be in the minority, but I like Fitch and his style. For betting purposes with Fitch a couple things to note:
　
1. In his last 9 fights they have all gone the distance. 6 of those 9 have been unanimous decision victories for Fitch.
　
2. In the last 8 years, Fitch has only had one true loss and one draw. (GSP UFC 87, and BJ Penn, UFC 127
　
There is never a sure thing in MMA, however there is a few guys I would never bet against. Anderson Silva, Jon Fitch, GSP, and Jon Jones.
　
If you wanted to bet this weekends UFC 141 card, I would be comfortable telling you to bet Jon Fitch to win, and the fight will go the distance all day.
　
You can bet any amount of money you would like, the payout of course would be different if you win (which we hope). A $100 bet is easy to understand and break down. If you have any questions or comments feel free to post them in the comment section below.
　
Here is my fight picks with betting odds for this weekends UFC 141 event.




　   

		Brock Lesnar		+125	1½ O +160 U -200
		Alistair Overeem		-155

The classic striker vs wrestler match up. Lesnar a former NCAA Division 1 champion and former UFC Heavyweight champion is coming off another bout of diverticulitis and surgery.  Hopefully the surgery once and for all corrected the sickness Lesnar has been plagued with the better part of 2 years.  Lesnar has some huge questions to answer with this fight.  Some being can he take a punch, should he be considered a top MMA heavyweight and can he impose his gameplan on the best heavyweight striker in MMA? Overeem, the former Strikeforce Heavyweight champion, Dream Interim Heavyweight champion and K-1 champion takes a huge step up in competition and is trying to make a name for himself facing the biggest name in MMA.  I see this fight starting with Lesnar rushing at Overeem and securing a quick takedown because Overeem will be surprised by Lesnar's athleticsm.  Overeem will get back to his feet though, slow the pace down and start finding his range, while Lesnar unsuccessfully tries for takedown attempts.  The round will end, with the agressor winning the round.  Round 2 is going to be much different.  Overeem will become comfortable, will no longer have his octagon jitters, and will find his range.  Overeem will start to pick Lesnar apart with kicks and crisps strikes until Lesnar gets caught and the referee stops the bout. 

WINNER: ALISTAIR "THE REEM" OVEREEM, 2ND ROUND TKO

      

		Nate Diaz		+200	2½ O -160 U +130
		Donald Cerrone		-260

The highly anticipated co-main event has UFC lightweight title implications riding on it, regardless of what UFC brass say.  Nate Diaz is the gatekeeper of the 155lb division.  Diaz has gone 4-5 in his last 9 fights.  The four wins he has had in this stretch, Diaz has beaten the guys he was supposed too(Markham, Gomi, and Davis).  Two of the wins Diaz has had, those fighters are no longer with the UFC.  If Gomi does not win at UFC 144 he will not be either.  The other win Diaz had was against Melvin Guillard.  I can argue Guillard was not in the right mental/physical state when they fought the first time.  If Diaz and Guillard were to rematch the outcome may be a lot different.  Cerrone who is one of MMA's hottest fighters with 4 wins in 2011, is looking to make a statement that he deserves the next shot at UFC lightweight gold.  In Cerrone's last 9 fights he is 7-2.  Losing only to Ben Henderson twice.  This fight has had some bad blood with Cerrone saying  "To be tough, you do not have to be from Stockton."  Also at the UFC 141 presser on Wednesday, some choice comments were said to cause Diaz to push Cerrone and flip his Cowboy hat off his head.  This fight has fight of the night written all over it.  This fight will be a WAR.  Diaz has a very hyped Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ) game, however Cerrone's is underrated.  An interesting tidbit here is that in MMA competition Cerrone has more submission wins with 13, than Diaz's 10.  I see this fight being primarily on the feet, because the BJJ game of both is pretty equal.  Diaz will have a three inch reach with a very good boxing game, which could keep Cerrone at bay.  However I see the first round being a toss up with Diaz talking and jabbing a lot but Cerrone will use crisp Muay Thai leg kicks to soften Diaz and pick him apart to a unanimous decision win. 

WINNER: DONALD "THE COWBOY" CERRONE, UNANIMOUS DECISION

     

		Johny Hendricks		+190	2½ O -300 U +220
		Jon Fitch		-240

 
As long as Fitch recognises and respects that Hendricks has a good boxing game and power in his hands he will win this fight.  Fitch is almost as close as a sure thing as there is in MMA.  Fitch is a grinder.  He takes criticism from fans and media for his grappling heavy performances, but it is effective.  Hendricks is outmatched in this fight. 

WINNER: JON FITCH, UNANIMOUS DECISION

     

		Vladimir Matyushenko		+250	1½ O -160 U +130
		Alexander Gustafsson		-350

 
Gustafsson is going to be a future 205lb contender.  At 24 years old Gustafsson is a very well rounded Mixed Martial Artist.  With 12 pro MMA wins to his credit, all but one has been a stoppage.  The fight with the veteran Matyushenko will  be very similar to the fight Vlad had with current UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones.  The forty year old Matyushenko will be over matched by the new generation of MMA athlete in Gustafsson.  

WINNER: ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON, TKO, ROUND 1 

     

		Jim Hettes		+180	2½ O -140 U +110
		Nam Phan		-230

Hettes is 9-0 in his pro MMA career.  All 9 wins have been by submission.  Phan has never been submitted.  Tonight is going to be the first time Phan taps out.  Hettes makes a name for himself tonight, and wins submission of the night too.

WINNER: JIM HETTES, SUBMISSION-REAR NAKED CHOKE, ROUND 2
   

		Junior Assuncao		+250	2½ O -170 U +140
		Ross Pearson		-350

 
Ross Pearson and Junior Assuncao both make the drop to the featherweight division in this fight.  Pearson lost a very close split decision to fast rising and up and comer Edson Barboza in his last bout in a very hostile enviroment.  (UFC 134) The season 9 Ultimate Fighter winner will be too much for Assuncao and this bout will also get Fight of the Night consideration.

WINNER: ROSS "THE REAL DEAL" PEARSON, UNANIMOUS DECISION

   

		Anthony Njokuani		+150	2½ O +115 U -145
		Danny Castillo		-180

  
Another fight of the night contender.  This bout is what die hard MMA fans love to see on betting lines.  The muay thai practioner Njokuani getting no love.  This fight if it stays on the feet will favor Njokuani.  To win Njokuani needs to respect the early power of Castillo and stick with his game plan

WINNER (AND PULLING THE UPSET WIN): ANTHONY NJOKUANI, UNANIMOUS DECISION
     

		Sean Pierson		+300	1½ O -190 U +155
		Dong Hyun Kim		-400

    
With this bout I am wondering if Dong Hyun Kim got matchmaker Joe Silva or Dana White a really nice christmas present for the bone they threw Kim.  As long as Kim wasnt affected too much by the Condit KO at UFC 132, and respects the heavy hands of Pierson he wins.  

WINNER: DONG HYUN KIM, UNANIMOUS DECISION

   

		Efrain Escudero		+200	2½ O -175 U +145
		Jacob Volkman		-260

I do not understand what the oddsmakers are thinking with this betting line at all.  They are giving Efrain Escudero 0 respect.  Granted Escudero is taking this fight on short notice, however remember he is the Ultimate Fighter Season 8 winner.  I feel Escudero is the better overall fighter, and that he had some unfortunate breaks inside the Octagon.  If Escudero stays away from Volkmans game which is grappling and keeps it standing victory awaits.

WINNER: EFRAIN ESCUDERO, WINS VIA TKO, ROUND 2(PULLING OFF A HUGE WIN)
   

		Luis Ramos		+105	2½ O -115 U -115
		Matthew Riddle		-135

This fight is either going to be a very short fight or a 3 round scrap.  I see this fight being a 3 round war with the UFC veteran Riddle being victorious.  

WINNER: MATT RIDDLE, SPLIT DECISION
 

		Manny Gamburyan		+200	2½ O -180 U +150
		Diego Nunes		-260

 
How did Manny Gamburyan and Diego Nunes go from headling/co headlining UFC/WEC events to the first bout of the evening?  Regardless, this fight ensures I will be watching on facebook as soon as the prelims start.  Team Nova Uniao fighter Diego Nunes gets the win, and back on track to get a shot at teammate Jose Aldo's UFC featherweight title.  The loss makes Gamburyan wonder what is next. 

WINNER: DIEGO NUNES, UNANIMOUS DECISION (GREAT FIGHT)

A Warrior's Journey: Fighter Profile Kyle Cerminara

Warrior is defined in the dictionary as a person who shows or has shown great vigor, courage, or aggressiveness.

A mixed martial artist has all these qualities.  Fans and media alike just see the end result.  The fight.  They may be live in the arena, watching on PPV or on a premium cable channel.  The question is do they really know how the fighters got to the point where they are stepping into the cage in front of thousands of people?  Some may have an idea what fighters do to prepare for a fight.  They may not know however, the specific sacrifices, trying times or hardships that a mixed martial artist has endured before they are in the cage with the door shut.    

Well we want to share that "other side" of the fighter with you.  Thank you to Be the Weapon Management (http://www.betheweaponmgmt.com/) for helping set up the all access interview with College All American, 2009 Pan American Games, US Open wrestling runner up and fast rising Light Heavyweight (205lbs)prospect Kyle Cerminara.  

MMA Octagon Takes is proud to present,  A Warrior's Journey: Fighter Profile Kyle Cerminara.  

Living 25 minutes out of Buffalo, NY in Lewiston, NY, Kyle Cerminara lived a pretty normal family life.  He lived with both his parents a father who was a cop, his mother a nurse and his 3 other siblings(2 brothers and 1 sister).  Kyle always played sports.  It was not until the sixth grade during gym class no less where he eventually found the sport he was drawn too.  Wrestling.  Kyle had great success in wrestling in both middle school and high school.  He had a coach and one would almost argue a mentor figure, Eric Gross as his high school wrestling coach.  Gross installed values by telling Kyle to work hard, believe in your training and anything is possible.  He instilled goals in Kyle by telling him if he followed what he said he could win championships.  Kyle listened.  The success he had in high school translated into a full athletic scholarship to attend and wrestle at the NCAA Division 1 University of Buffalo(UB).  At UB he found his most success to date with wrestling, achieving and becoming the schools first ever NCAA Division 1 All American in any sport.  

After college Kyle took that All American success to the US Olympic Training Center (OTC)to train for the 2008 Olympic Games.  Kyle stated going there got, "really kinda good" at wrestling.  At the Olympic training center Kyle really learned many valuable lessons on how to train like a Olympic caliber athlete.  Kyle stated that it was there he learned there was a science to training.  Rest days were important.  Fueling your body with the right nutrition was also a very important step.  Being in that type of environment where Kyle was always being pushed and around people with the same goals made him take that next step in his athletic career.  

With guys like Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix finalist and US Olympic Team captain Daniel Cormier, former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champion "King" Mo Lawal, Steve Mocco, and Nick Fekete,  those are world class training partners to name a few at the OTC to push Kyle.  Kyle stating iron sharpens iron is almost an understatement.  The battles at the OTC had to be epic with names like that rolling in there.  Kyle and the after mentioned crew, competed all around the world, perfecting their craft for the 2008 Olympic trials.  However Kyle had to wrestle eventual US Olympic team captain and in Kyle's word's the best athlete and wrestler Cormier.  Kyle lost in the finals of the 2008 Olympic trials to Cormier.  However losing to Cormier taught Kyle valuable lessons.  

After a failed bid at the 2008 Olympic trials Kyle took a job at the University of Edinboro coaching their wrestling team while still competing internationally.  In 2009 Kyle helped guide Edinboro to finish 6th at the NCAA championships.  After a brief stint at Edinboro he took a job as an assistant coach at the University of Pennsylvania.  Also at this time he stopped wrestling internationally.  Taking this job enabled Kyle to find his next athletic challenge and love.  Mixed Martial Arts.  

While coaching at the University of Pennsylvania, he met former UFC and Pro Elite fighter Waylon Lowe.  It was this meeting where Kyle started going to MMA gyms as a hobby.  However the more he went, the more he liked it.  Kyle became good friends with many fighters in Philly especially current Bellator Fighting Championships light heavyweight Tim Carpenter.  The personal relationships formed here helped fuel his passion for MMA and desire to become a world champion.  Kyle and Carpenter formed a strong friendship and bond in training.  Each guy complimented the other.  If Kyle was weak in an area, Tim was not, and vice versa.  They helped each other get better.  Kyle stopped coaching a short time after to concentrate on training MMA full time.  I asked Kyle if he missed coaching,  his response was he does not miss coaching overall but some elements of coaching he misses.  Like the athletes he trained and coached.  Kyle stated " At Penn I was coaching 50% of the time and training and fighting the other 50%.  To be successful in anything you gotta be 100% committed." Kyle at that point had some choices to make.  Be part of the 97% that is content with where they are in life or be part of the 3% that take risk and are the most successful.  Also, should he cut that nice steady paycheck to be the best in the world?  He chose to take the risk of pursuing a full time MMA career.  

While watching a live MMA event Kyle ran into Bellator Fighting Championships match maker Sam Kaplan.  Kaplan told Kyle he was holding a tryout for Bellator the next day and he should attend.   Kyle a bit skeptical, said okay and showed up.  Kyle's resistance to the tryout was because it did not feature actual combat.  At the tryout they had Kyle go through a few rounds of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and grappling.  He also had to do pad work, which Kyle showing he's not afraid to disclose his weaknesses, said he is not that good at.  The tryout came to the end with Kyle being selected the winner and receiving an offer from Bellator.  Kyle stated he thought he won because the executives at Bellator saw the huge potential and marketability of him.  

This past September Kyle's progress was slowed a bit due to an injury.  He went through surgery and is back stronger than ever.  Kyle is looking to fight this March, be it stateside or overseas.  For the fight in March he is training in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  Kyle trains under the guidance of Marco Perazzo, owner of New Jersey MMA, who is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt who understands the MMA game as good as anyone, and Eric Karner his stand-up coach.  Being back home in Lewiston, NY for a short time has also enabled Kyle to work and train with the legendary Stonehorse.  At first Kyle did not know who Stonehorse was.  However Stonehorse was current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones first muay thai instructor.  I can argue that Stonehorse was the guy that showed Jones those slick flying knees and spinning back elbows, which Jones is known for today.  Stonehorse was in Jones corner for at least his first three UFC fights.  Upon meeting Stonehorse, Kyle clicked with him.  Kyle stated Stonehorse is a passionate guy and knows his stuff.  Due to lack of sparring partners in Buffalo, Kyle said Stonehorse will most likely come to Philadelphia and help him train for March's fight.  

I asked Kyle what weight class he is content at.  At the present time he is going to stay at 205lbs(light heavyweight).  Kyle walks around between 225-230 lbs.  He stated he could eventually drop to 185lbs (middleweight).  Recently we have seen a lot of smaller light heavyweights and mid tier guys drop to middleweight in other organizations and have a lot of success.  Kyle is an explosive, strong fighter which nets him a lot of victories.  With the fight in March, he wants to open his game up a bit more and showcase his stand up game, and let his hands fly.  

I also posed the question to Kyle if he looks up to anyone in today's MMA scene.  He said he does not because he does not want to have a fan mentality and putting guys on pedestal's because they are harder to fight.  He mentioned he likes current UFC Light featherweight champion Jose Aldo.  Kyle stated he would like to learn and pull some of the moves off in the cage that Aldo does.  Kyle also came back with he likes fighters that stay true to themselves and where they came from.  For example if your a wrestler, you're a wrestler first and evolve your game around your wrestling base.  He mentioned guys like Chael Sonnen and Ben Askren who are guys in today's current MMA scene that stay true to that.  Kyle also said if he follows that theory no other aspect of his game should be better than his wrestling.  Be it Muay Thai, Boxing or even Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. 

To change the interview up I asked Kyle to describe some movers and shakers in today's MMA scene in 10 words or less.  Here is his answers verbatim.  There are some awesome opinions here. 

Dana White- brilliant business man

Bjorn Rebney- on the right track in helping MMA go mainstream

Ben Askren- tremendous athlete and competitor, constant, good for wrestling and MMA, respect for him

Randy Couture- ICON of the sport, Kyle only hopes to have kinda the career he had.

Daniel Cormier- best wrestler and best athlete in MMA

Jon Jones- what can you say bad, true Mixed Martial Artist, good at all aspects of MMA

Anderson Silva- smaller version of Jones, but if Sonnen and Silva rematch, Sonnen beats him

Waylon Lowe- great person and heart, tremendous competitor, all around good guy, and is gonna be a beast at 145lbs(featherweight)

Chael Sonnen- best thing for the sport, and one of the best fighters in MMA.  Means what he says too

Mark Munoz- good wrestler and respect

"King" Mo Lawal- athletic.  Earlier in the interview we talked in depth about the former Strikeforce Champion and Kyle also had this to say.  Mo has a swagger.  He is successful, believes in himself.  Can back up his talk.  He is a tremendous wrestler and all around athlete.  Kyle mentioned they still talk and Mo gives him advice all the time.  

I asked Kyle is it true what they say that a good wrestler is the kryptonite for a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu(BJJ) fighter.  He stated a good wrestler with some Jiu Jitsu is dangerous for a BJJ practitioner, however a wrestler with no BJJ is a perfect opponent for a BJJ practitioner.  

The conversation moved on to the strength and conditioning aspect of his game.  Kyle stated that strength and conditioning is the number one focus of his training.  He stated if he is strong, explosive and in shape he is tough to beat.  The reason for emphasis and focus on this aspect Kyle states is because you can not win fights if you can't keep your hands up or keep your legs underneath you.  He also went on to say that you can have all the talent in the world but without guidance and training partners to push you, you are not going anywhere.

I went on to ask Kyle what he thought of MMA not being legalized in NY State.  He stated it is ridiculous and a joke its not allowed in NY.  Sooner or later it will be he said.  If it's on Fox it's legit enough to be in NY.  Kyle stated he would love to fight in his back yard in front of friends and family at the First Niagara Center(formerly the HSBC Arena) if MMA is ever sanctioned/legalized in NY State.   

A Warrior's Journey: Fighter Profile Kyle Cerminara by Dan Dirkx; MMA OCTAGON TAKES

In closing:

Warriors, combat athletes, and mixed martial artists come from all walks of life.  I can argue that each and every fighter story is completely different and unique.  There may be similarities in stories, but no two journeys are the same at all.  99.5% of us wish we could enter a cage and compete.  However only that small percentage actually do.  

FIRAS ZAHABI HEAD TRAINER OF UFC WELTERWEIGHT(170LBS) CHAMPION GEORGES ST PIERRE SAID IT BEST WHEN HE SAID "YOU TRAIN ALL DAY, EVERYDAY, HARD. IF YOUR TRAINING IS LIKE EVERYONE ELSE'S, YOUR GOING TO BE LIKE EVERYONE ELSE, AND IF YOU WANT TO TRAIN TO THE POINT WHERE YOUR THE BEST THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF DANGER" 

This was a great experience and a awesome look behind the scenes of what a Mixed Martial Artist goes through.  I want to thank Kyle Cerminara for the interview.  We will touch base in March when his fight gets closer.  I also want to thank Lucin @ Be the Weapon Management as well.  If your a fighter or not remember two things Train Hard, Fight Easy, and NEVER FAIL AT THE EDGES OF YOUR EXPERIENCES

  Kyle would like to thank all his fans and sponsors for all their support.  You can follow Kyle Cerminara on Facebook, also be on the lookout for a Kyle Cerminara fan page on Facebook,  and follow him on twitter coming soon.  

Kyle also wants to give a big thanks to all his training partners and coaches past and present.  He also wants to give special thanks to Stonehorse for the passion and knowledge he shows him.  Marco Perazzo owner of NJ MMA and BJJ blackbelt, Eric Karner his stand-up coach in Philadelphia, and Screams Restaurant and Sports Lounge in Buffalo, NY.  Last but not least thanks to former pro boxer Billy Thompkins for working his boxing game while he has been in Buffalo.  

*all pictures were found on the internet thru google search* also one picture was used with permission by photographer Kevin Wuchter