Monday, February 13, 2012

UFC on FUEL TV 1: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez; Main Card Preview, Predictions and Betting Lines

With most guys on purgatory lock down the day before UFC on FUEL TV 1: Ellenberger vs Sanchez airs, the UFC could not of timed an event better .  The event will be airing live on Fuel TV beginning at 8pm ET, 5pm PT.  The preliminary card streams live on Facebook around 5pm ET, 2pm PT.  

The winner of the main event for UFC on Fuel TV 1 between Jake Ellenberger and Diego "The Dream" Sanchez could be in line for a title shot against newly minted UFC interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit.  

Ellenberger, is coming into this fight with Sanchez riding a five fight win streak.  He has won his last two fights by thunderous knockouts over two very game competitors.  (Jake Shields and Sean Pierson).  Ellenberger has a professional Mixed Martial Arts record of 26-5.  This former US Marine has an awesome 17 KO/TKO victories to boot, 5 submission and 4 decision wins.  Ellenberger has steadily improved each fight.  A decisive win over the UFC veteran and Ultimate Fighter Season 1 winner Sanchez will surely force UFC brass to look very hard at giving Ellenberger the rematch he desires against the newly crowned UFC interim welterweight champ.  In Ellenberger's last 10 fights his only loss has been to Condit.  Not only was it a controversial split decision loss, it was also a fight Ellenberger took on short notice.  With UFC welterweight champion Georges St Pierre out until the fourth quarter of this year, and the recent failed drug test of Stockton Bad Boy, Nick Diaz, the rematch between Condit and Ellenberger makes sense.  

Diego "The Nightmare/The Dream" Sanchez is definitely one of the baddest and most eccentric dudes in Mixed Martial Arts.  Sanchez the Ultimate Fighter season one winner has a professional MMA record of 23-4.  Sanchez is a very well rounded mixed martial artist.  Of his 23 wins he has 6 KO/TKO's, 9 submissions and 8 unanimous decisions.  A majority of his fights are all out wars.  Hence why 4 of his last 6 fights have been deserving of UFC Fight of the Night bonus awards.  His fight against Clay Guida, June 20, 2009 at the Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale was 2009's Fight of the Year winner.  If you have not seen this fight you are doing a disservice to yourself.  With a switch in camps back to Jackson's MMA, it has almost been a year since the man dubbed "The Dream" has fought in the Octagon.  His last bout came against the always tough Martin Kampmann at UFC LIVE: Sanchez vs Kampmann, March 3, 2011.  Sanchez was scheduled to fight legendary Matt Hughes at UFC 135 in September, 2011 but had to withdraw from that bout due to a hand injury.  Will this lack of activity cost the Dream against the very tough Ellenberger?  

Diego Sanchez      +250
Jake Ellenberger  - 350

Diego Sanchez picked a very tough opponent for his first fight back in the Octagon in almost a year.  Sanchez is also fighting in Ellenberger's back yard.  Ellenberger was born and raised in Omaha, Nebraska the place where UFC on FUEL TV 1 takes place.  Ellenberger can be a tough, grinding wrestler or a knockout specialist.  Sanchez is a very game fighter but his long layoff,  coupled with the fact Ellenberger is a very high level mixed martial artist will prove to be too much. 

Ellenberger is a future #1 contender in the UFC's welterweight division and will emerge victorious in this bout.  We can all but guarantee here at MMACAGECHATTER.COM this fight will go the distance and will win the fight of the night award.  


Stefan Struve +115
Dave Herman -145

For people who do not know who Dave "Pee Wee" Herman is you will after this fight.  Herman has quietly amassed a 21-2 professional mixed martial arts record in many MMA promotions.  Notable promotions he has fought in, include Showtime Elite XC, Bellator, Sengoku, and Shark Fights.  Herman had some pre UFC fame by discussing with the media how he trains himself for his MMA fights.  Of Herman's 21 wins, 15 have come from a knock out or technical knockout.  Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve is by far the tallest fighter on the UFC's roster.  Struve has fought 9 times in the UFC with only one of his fights going the distance (Paul Buentello, UFC 107). The one question about Struve's MMA game is his chin.  Of his 3 losses all have come from KO or TKO.(Junior Dos Santos, Roy Nelson, and Travis Browne).  Struve has a very good ground game, which is his bread butter, but the fight will not go to the ground or last very long.  Herman's striking is too much for the man dubbed Skyscraper.  The Skyscraper is demolished.


Ronny Markes +100
Aaron Simpson  -130

Ronny Markes is a very young, well rounded, Brazilian Mixed Martial Artist.  Fighting primarily on the Brazilian regional scene, Markes initially signed with the UFC as an injury replacement for Stephan Bonnar.  Markes fought Karlos Vemola at UFC on Versus 5, August 14, 2011.  He won that bout by unanimous decision.  Aaron Simpson is an All American wrestler from Arizona State University who is 7-2 in his UFC/WEC career.  His only career losses have been to good friend Mark Munoz, and Chris Leben.  Simpson's last four bouts have all gone the distance, and we see this one being no different.


Philip DeFries +275
Stipe Miocic   -375

This bout is a classic Grappler vs Striker match-up.  The line favors the striker here.  Yet it is going to come down to who imposes their game plan first.  The striker Stipe Miocic is 7-0 as a professional mixed martial artist.  Miocic is also a NCAA Division 1 wrestler.  Six of his seven wins have been from strikes.  Philip DeFries is 8-0 as a professional mixed martial artist.  Seven of his eight wins have been via submission.   Striking vs Submission.  Who wins?    

Walel Watson +220
Tj Dillashaw     -300's A Warriors Journey: Fighter Profile subject Walel Watson fights Team Alpha Male's stand out wrestler and The Ultimate Fighter(TUF), Season 14 bantamweight runner up TJ Dillashaw.  Watson has a professional MMA record of 9-3.  All nine of his wins have been finishes.  Two KO/TKO's and 7 submissions.  Dillashaw who has a professional MMA record of 4-1 looks to rebound after his first professional loss.  Three out of the four wins Dillashaw has had have been finishes.  Two submissions and one TKO.  (The other win was a decision)  Even counting Dillashaw's 2 amateur MMA bouts he had before he went pro(he went 2-0 in the amateur
bouts) that is half the pro experience Watson has.  Going back to Dillashaw's first non TUF house UFC fight, in the Ultimate Fighter 14 finale against John Dodson, he was clearly out-matched and out-gunned by a better and more experienced fighter.  Another thing worth mentioning here is that Team Alpha Male, Dillshaw's fight team,  is predominately made up of wrestlers.  Not too many high level strikers reside here with the exception of Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez.(to a degree) Faber and Benavidez have developed their striking game over time.  The striking aspect of Dillashaws's MMA game could be his downfall here.  Watson is very good off his back, and has an under-rated ground game.  Dillashaw will get a few takedowns, but Watson's size and length will come into play here, if the fight goes to the ground.  Watson is going to do everything he can to keep this fight standing and pick Dillashaw apart on the feet.


To read our exclusive interview with Walel Watson follow this link HERE.  It is entitled A Warriors Journey: A Fighter Profile: UFC Fighter Walel Watson "Every fight, is the next biggest fight of my life"

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